Week 4 of the NFL season also happens to be the first slate of October games, which means my second favorite month of the year is upon us (no one messes with Christmas season, folks). October, though, isn't just about Halloween, pumpkin everything pumpkin, backyard fires, 55 degree mornings and nights sandwiching an 80 degree afternoon, horror movies like Hunger Games, and stepping in dog poop covered by crunchy leaves. October is when the NFL season starts to take form. Pretenders are littered throughout September, and contenders in the form of duds start slow as well. October is when the year starts to get a bit clearer. We also get a full slate of grown men wearing pink.
Of the crew of remaining undefeated teams in the NFL, which are you most comfortable with for the rest of the year? One has dominated for three weeks with a ragtag group of quarterbacks filling in while their franchise QB sunbathes nude on an Italian coast. One has a receiving corp with a collective age under the legal limit to rent a car (supposedly 25, but is that true? And rental car readers here that can confirm?) and a quarterback riding early momentum so high that coworkers of mine are ready to vote him into the Hall. One has seen their starting quarterback and All-Pro starting running back tandem go down to injury only to simultaneously watch their defense bloom into possibly the best in the league. One is my favorite team though the collective record of the teams they have beaten through three weeks is 1-8, while the collective points they've won by is a measly 13. And one is the defending Super Bowl champion.
For Pete's sake, I can not decide who is the cream of the crop of that group. I want to say New England, but it is extremely tough to take away from what Denver has done through their first three as well. The country is praising the Pats for overcoming Tom Bradys suspension, as they rightfully should, but New England knew for months that they would have to start Garrapolo through four games. Denver thought Mark Sanchez might have been their starting quarterback before first round pick Paxton Lynch was ready potentially next season. Yet, Sanchez sucked like they should have expected and suddenly Trevor Siemen was the next Peyton Manning for the defending Super Bowl champions. Talk about throwing a kid to the fire, opening up the season with Carolina, Indianapolis and Cincinnati. And they are no fluky 3-0. But perhaps the most legit of the 3-0's is Mike Zimmer's Vikings. That defense is nasty and the offense just happens to look good enough so far. They have found themselves down at least a touchdown in every game so far, and they have also wound up on top when time expires every game. That shows grit and mental toughness. I am more worried about teams playing from ahead in every game than I am about teams playing from behind and managing to win, the latter being much tougher. If the Vikings can start out stronger from the onslaught, with the schedule they have in front of them, this could be a sneaky 13 win team without their star running back and franchise quarterback. Who else could possibly be the NFC Coach of the Year?
To the lines!
Miami Dolphins (1-2) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
Line: -7.5.....Dr. Glows Pick: Miami +7.5
Line: -7.5.....Dr. Glows Pick: Miami +7.5
Just call me Honest Pat, posting this horrendous pick after the game when I could have just flipped it on its head. I'm 18-31 including this game, and I don't think I've managed to pick a Thursday game correct yet. So don't act surprised by any of this. My thinking was that any time you put your belief in the Bengals, they screw you royally. Couple that with the unpredictability of the Thursday night games and I was not comfortable at all picking them to win by over a touchdown. But Andy Dalton is quietly leading the AFC in passing yards, which he was doing even before having one game up on the competition. The touchdowns aren't there quite yet, mostly because he has faced some tough red zone defenses and his favorite target, Tyler Eifert, remains sidelined with ankle issues. Eifert is coming back soon, the schedule gets a little easier and the touchdowns should come. As for Miami, the offense looked completely inept save a sixty yard touchdown in the first quarter for Kenny Stills. I'm not sure what was uglier, the offensive incompetency or the orange cream uniforms. Maybe those were why they couldn't find the end zone.
SUNDAY SLATE OF GAMES
Indianapolis Colts (1-2) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3)
Line: Indianapolis -2.5.........Prime Minister Glows Pick: Colts -2.5
The idea is solid, to ship a few NFL games to London each season in order to spread the national success of American football across the pond and eventually globally. But its like shipping The Big Bang Theory to London to show how great American sitcoms are. Why consistently send our worst product across seas? Jacksonville is 1-2 so far in London games, so I am sure the Brits are excited to see this riveting AFC South showdown between a 1-2 Colts team that was sixty seconds from being 0-3 and an 0-3 Jaguars team that has looked like a JV high school squad. Of course I am only half kidding, but the London games have actually been a great financial success so far for the league. But this game will not be the highlight of the week though I do think it will be fun to watch, even if it is going to be on TV before most of your household is awake (9:30 AM EST kickoff, watch out paid programming). These two teams had high aspirations in a weak division coming into 2016, and both have struggled so far. Both are desperate for a win and it should translate to a competitive game on the field. Ultimately, Andrew Luck is better than Blake Bortles which should be the difference maker, even if it is hard to swallow for this Jaguars team to be 0-4. But they shouldn't have been 0-3 coming into this game. Colts by six.
Tennessee Titans (1-2) @ Houston Texans (2-1)
Line: Houston -5.......Dr. Glows Pick: Houston -5
For some reason, this game has turned into a trendy upset pick this week. Are the Titans good enough to march into Houston and beat the Texans? I guess this early in the season and considering Houston will be without J.J. Watt, it certainly is possible but remember these Titans were the worst team in football last season. They haven't looked considerably better this season, either. The Titans have been competitive in every game so far, but they haven't had any stiff opponents either. People need to forget about the Houston team that got their asses handed to them by Jacoby Brissett in Foxborough almost ten days ago and remember the Texans team that was dominating on both sides of the ball through the first two games. I think this game will be close until the fourth quarter. I also expect a big game out of Brock Osweiler because I need a big game out of Brock Osweiler in order to remain afloat in my fantasy league. Injuries are to blame, you smartass readers. I am not proud to admit I am riding on the back of Brock Osweiler as early as Week 4.
Cleveland Browns (0-3) @ Washington Redskins (1-2)
Line: Washington -7.5.........Dr Glows Pick: Cleveland +7.5
I don't think Cleveland wins this week, but I also don't like putting my faith in Washington as high as 7.5 points. This Redskins team has yet to impress me, though they have looked slightly better than a 1-2 record might imply. They hung with Dallas in Week 2 and they ended up pulling a nice win out of thin air against the Giants last week. Poor Cleveland is throwing the kitchen sink at their opponents every week and continually winding up on the wrong side of the scoreboard. The Browns probably lose again, but I see a 17-14 game. Can the Redskins blow a team out at this point? Damn, these games are depressingly awful so far.
Seattle Seahawks (2-1) @ New York Jets (1-2)
Line: Seattle -2.5........Dr Glows Pick: Seattle -2.5
Finally, a game worth watching. Possibly the game of the week, considering the Jets are tough at home and the Seahawks are trying to stay afloat amidst a slew of injuries and disappointing players, expect a defensive showdown in New York. Ryan Fitzpatrick has to shake off his six interception nightmare and Russell Wilson has to continue putting the team on his ankle in order to win this one. I like my daddy's Seahawks for one reason: the Jets will also be without Eric Decker, making an already fragile offense even more limp. Expert analysis here, ladies and gentlemen, the Jets offense is limp.
Buffalo Bills (1-2) @ New England Patriots (3-0)
Line: New England -7.5.......Dr Glows Pick: New England -7.5
This game was the toughest for me to pick, since it is half statement game and half trap game for both sides. This game is Buffalo's Super Bowl twice a year, considering they haven't made it to the playoffs since Y2K was a thing. Rex Ryan wants this win, but make no mistake that New England hates Buffalo as much as they hate the Jets. The Bills are the Patriot's annoying step brother, and with one more game until they get their naked quarterback back, New England is ready to send a statement to the league. They've already severely outdone expectations, demolishing a playoff ready Houston team with Jacoby Brissett behind center. The defense has been nothing short of outstanding, leading the league in points allowed per game, and the offense has run smoothly through LaGarrette Blount. Expect a lot of Blount this week since who knows who will be quarterbacking but also expect a blitz heavy defense eager to make Tyrod Taylor look like a rook himself. Also, expect a lot of high Donald Trump temperaments on the field, as this game always comes with heavy doses of emotion. In the end, Buffalo got their trap game last week against Arizona, I can't see two in a row. Pats win by two scores.
Carolina Panthers (1-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (2-1)
Line: Carolina -3.......Dr Glows Pick: Carolina -3
If the Falcons can pull this one off at home, and they were Carolina's lone defeat last season in a 15-1 campaign, the NFC South could be wrapped up already. This would be a massive victory by Matt Ryan and company, riding off an impressive blowout in New Orleans on Monday night. The Falcons can score points, but the way to beat Cam Newton and the Panthers is by forcing Newton out of the pocket and pressuring him often. I'm not sure this Falcons defense is as aggressive as Denver's or Minnesota's. I also think that is the difference maker. I don't think the Panthers run away with this one, but I don't think they lose either. I have trouble envisioning an NFL with Cam Newton sitting at 1-3 and Matt Ryan at 3-1. But remember, Jonathan Stewart will be out again, making a Carolina offense that has seemed to stutter even more susceptible. This should be a great game to watch with the feels of a December division showdown.
Oakland Raiders (2-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (3-0)
Line: Baltimore -3.5.........Dr Glows Pick: Baltimore -3.5
The Ravens lost this game last season, but they also lost almost every other game last season, and they have yet to lose a game this season. The game last year was also across the coasts in Oakland, always a tough game to pull off even with a completely healthy team, which Baltimore is slightly closes to if Kenneth Dixon plays and considering Elvis Dumervil is playing. The defense that has already been top five this year gets even more dominating with their best pass rusher back. Oakland's defense has been their Achille's heel so far, though they were a touchdown away from being 3-0 despite it. But I think the Ravens offense truly breaks out this week and I think the defense forces a few key mistakes from Derek Carr. It is equally as tough for a west coast team to come to Baltimore and win, and with a few key guys coming back, I like the Ravens in this one in their most impressive win yet. Plus, Joe Flacco just welcomed his fourth kid into the world, so Vegas hopefully adjusted the line accordingly.
Detroit Lions (1-2) @ Chicago Bears (0-3)
Line: Detroit -3.........Dr Glows Pick: Chicago +3
Desperate game for John Fox and the Bears, and the Lions haven't proven enough for me to think they can hold off a Bears team at home throwing the kitchen sink. I know they're banged up, I know they're not very good as it is, but the defense could force some Matthew Stafford turnovers and outside of an immortal 200 yard game from Marvin Jones, the Lions offense has looked stale. Chicago pulls this one off at home, probably their only NFC North victory of the season.
Denver Broncos (3-0) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2)
Line: Denver -3.........Dr Glows Pick: Denver -3
This line is only three because the game is in Tampa and the Broncos are still putting all of their faith in Trevor Simean. But Simean has yet to prove that he can't win on the road, as he picked apart a good Bengals defense in Cincinnati last weekend. Granted, the Bengals missed out on a few key interceptions and some bad throws from the rookie, but that's football. The Broncos are 3-0 at the end of the day. Winston needs a good game after a bad start to the season and this Denver defense is not the one to get it against. I see a Denver blowout in this one, possibly a week before the inevitable bad game from Trevor and the Broncos offense. But I think this one goes through CJ Anderson, who is due for a big game. I just don't have reason to trust this Bucs defense yet.
Los Angeles Rams (2-1, yes, 2-1) @ Arizona Cardinals (1-2, yes, 1-2)
Line: Arizona -8.........Dr Glows Pick: Arizona -8
The largest line of the week is a 1-2 team that just got blown out in Buffalo by Tyrod Taylor. Carson Palmer couldn't have looked much worse last week, a frightening fact for Cardinals fans across the nation. Let us not forget that Palmer is quickly approaching the magic number of 40, and that injuries have been something he has been quite familiar with in his career. Could the glory days of Carson Palmer be winding down sooner than our preseason minds expected? The vaunted Cardinals offense has looked anything but through their first three games, save a demolition of Tampa Bay. But they do have David Johnson, who I believe might be the best running back in the game not named Adrian Peterson. I also don't like the Rams at all, and although I know they can't pull of a 3-1 start, I also truly believe they get their asses whooped in this one. They just have to, right?
New Orleans Saints (0-3) @ San Diego Chargers (1-2)
Line: San Diego -4........Dr Glows Pick: San Diego -4
I am not very underdog heavy this week, which is probably bad news for all of the favorites, but this Chargers team is better than people give it credit for and I think this Saints team is worse than we thought they could be. Drew Brees on the road is already an ugly thing, even as he returns to San Diego. But this Saints defense might be historically bad, and I think the much improved Chargers offense picks them apart. Even without Keenan Allen and Antonio Gates and Danny Woodhead, this Chargers offense has looked anything short of mediocre. Give Phillip Rivers and the offensive line some props for that. I think this Saints organization has played it safe and stagnant for a few seasons too long, accepting some shitty 7-9 seasons as okay while failing to improve any positions on either sides of the ball. 2016 is where it catches up to them as the Saints fall to an embarrassing 0-4.
Dallas Cowboys (2-1) @ San Francisco 49ers (1-2)
Line: Dallas -2.5.......Dr Glows Pick: Dallas -2.5
Chip Kelly still has faith in this awful 49ers offense. Carlos Hyde has been the bright spot on an otherwise disappointing offense that has got some fluky touchdowns while averaging just 175 yards through the air in three games. This line is way too low, even for Dallas on the road without Dez Bryant. The offense will run through Elliot and I think it will run just fine. Dallas wins this one pretty handily by at least a touchdown.
Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)
Line: Pittsburgh -5......... Dr Glows Pick: Kansas City +5
Though I think Pittsburgh wins this one, it isn't by more than five. This will be a great defensive game to watch as two of the best in the league square off. What's interesting is that one is coming off an epic eight takeaway game against the Jets while the other is coming off an ugly 34 point beating from Carson Wentz and the Eagles. It won't matter for a Mike Tomlin coached team. The difference will come down Ben Roethlisberger, who rarely has two bad games in a row. I see an important Steelers win on game winning field goal.
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
New York Giants (2-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (3-0)
Line: Minnesota -4.5........Dr Glows Pick: New York +4.5
Sam Bradford and Jerrick McKinnon are 3-0, folks. That is what a dominating defense will get you. The Vikings are beating legit teams, too, as they took down the defending NFC champions last week. I think I'm only taking the Giants with the points this week, as I really am starting to think that if Bradford can be a game manager and cut down on his infamous interceptions, this Vikings team might be the best in the league. Plus, I never like Eli on primetime and the running back situation is pretty dicey right now in New York. But look at Minnesota's remaining schedule if they can win this one and improve to 4-0, which I think they do: vs Houston, @ Philadelphia, @ Chicago, vs Detroit, @ Washington, vs Arizona, @ Detroit, vs Dallas, @ Jacksonville, vs Indianapolis, @ Green Bay. Can you find more than six losses in there, which I think is the minimum cutoff for at least making the playoffs in the NFC? I don't know that I can find more than four. Like I said in the beginning, if Mike Zimmer can bring this Vikings team to 12-4 or 13-3 without Teddy Bridgewater or Adrian Peterson, how can anyone fight for Coach of the Year (other than Belichik, but come on).
Here's to my comeback week! I can feel my record drowning me :( Good thing I bet with Monopoly money, I hope you readers do too.
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