13-20
Welcome to the first post of the Dr. Glows Crystal Ball NFL Picks! Yes, I understand that it is Week 3 of the NFL season, probably three weeks short of when the first post of such content should have posted. Look, I get it. But would you rather take gambling advice from someone who is organized, thorough, intelligent, well-researched and timely or someone who is disorganized, busy with other things, mostly just a fan, practicing having a beard, trying to train his new dog how to not be insane and quickly falling behind .500 on his picks against the spread through two weeks? The answer is right in front of you, just trust me to get you there. Trust fall, fellow reader, my words will be there to catch you.
If I've still got you, great! You're at least in for some fun, don't bank on much on the insight grid. Crystal balls, terot cards, fortune tellers, one thing we all have in common is we're just spoon feeding you a bunch of bullshit until you burp up some cash or in this case some clicks and comments on my blog so that I can generate enough buzz to have some dimwit startup company begin advertising on here, earning me enough commission to quit my job and take my idea of good tasting food that just injects into your blood stream so we don't have to cook anymore if we don't want to on to Shark Tank. Was that a run-on sentence? Hell yeah, it was. Do run-on instances also make for an acronym of ROI? Startup company desperate to spend marketing budget, I'm looking right at you.
So yeah, so far through the year, I am sitting pretty at 13-20, including my foolish decision to bet against Bill Belichik and the Almighty Patriots. And I could have just lied to you since the only proof of this that I have is on my ESPN Pigskin Pick'em account. I'm telling you that I had my record at 30-3 right up until I hit the Publish button and my editor got in my ear about setting the bar too high and how important my morals should be to me and legal implications. All right, I'm lying again, I don't have an editor nor do I know what legal implications I could be facing by lying about my NFL picks record. But I do have morals and I don't like setting the bar too high since I'm only 5'7'', so here we are. 13-20. Trust me, you can trust me with your need for some NFL intelligence on picking against the spread. 13-20 just looks right. It looks good. "Hey, 13-20, I'm taking you out for a nice lobster dinner on the bay. Because I love me some 13-20." I'm getting sweaty just typing the numbers.
Week 3 is interesting in that only one matchup contains two 2-0 teams, and it is the interstate face-off between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Philadelphia Eagles. Fun fact, I live in Philadelphia. Another fun fact, if I had a strict word count, these would be the two sentences deleted first. Anywho, this game likely figures to be the game of the week, at least from a matchup of two undefeated teams standpoint. But we've got lots of desperate 0-2 teams fighting for their playoff dreams, we've got a mess of 1-1 teams trying to figure out their identity and we've got a third string quarterback starting in Cleveland. I'm all on board for this week.
Let's get it on!
Arizona Cardinals (1-1) @ Buffalo Bills (0-2)
Line: Arizona -4 Dr. Glows Pick: Arizona -4
Buffalo tried saving its season by firing their offensive coordinator, a puzzling pick considering that the offense didn't really seem all that awful through two games. Sammy Watkins has been a little banged up and honestly, the offense lacks any real talent outside of him. The defense is what has just looked horrendous so far, and expect the Cardinals potent offense to rip them to shreds. I would give Buffalo three scores, Carson Palmer is going to have a field day in Buffalo on Sunday. I think they are still pissed that they lost that Week 1 Sunday night game to New England in Arizona. They took out some fumes on poor Jameis Winston and Tampa last week, Tyrod Taylor is the next victim. Also, for the record, I am not giving the Bills three scores. Just wanted to clarify that.
Oakland Raiders (1-1) @ Tennessee Titans (1-1)
Line: Tennessee -1.5 Dr. Glows Pick: Tennessee -1.5
Poor Oakland can't stop opposing offenses to save their lives, allowing 69 points through the first two weeks. The bright spot is the Oakland offense, which has scored 63 points of its own through two weeks. Luckily for the Raiders, they have the ballsiest coach in the NFL in my main man Jack Del Rio. However, though the Titans have only scored 32 points through two weeks, I give them the edge at home. DeMarco Murray is resurrecting his career and Marcus Mariota has been pretty impressive, even in eking out an ugly win in the one o'clock game everyone forgot about last week against Detroit. I actually expect another shootout, maybe 28-24 or 31-28, but I expect the Titans to come out on top.
Cleveland Browns (0-2) @ Miami Dolphins (0-2)
Line: Miami -9.5 Dr. Glows Pick: Cleveland +9.5
I am taking Miami in my edgy family survivor pool this week, because I see no way the Dolphins start 0-3 at the hands of the almighty Cody Kessler. However, I also see no way that I could comfortably lay ten points to this wily Dolphins team. Could Miami decimate a Cleveland team with absolutely no stability at any position? Sure. Any team hypothetically could. But Miami isn't a strong enough team to be ten point favorites because I've seen nothing from the Dolphins to give me any reason to believe in them as well. I expect some sort of 18-13 game that bores the hell out of everyone involved. Unless Cody Kessler winds up to be the savior of football in Cleveland, this game will just be some sort of ugly Dolphins win. Nothing to be proud of in South Beach, for sure.
Baltimore Ravens (2-0) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2)
Line: Even Dr. Glows Pick: Baltimore
What a freaking INSULT to the state of Maryland to have this game be a pick 'em line. Some real randy tandy bullshit coming out of Vegas. But hell, the Ravens won the Super Bowl back in 2013 when no one believed in them. I guess they are going to be the No One Believes In Us Team of 2016 as well. In all seriousness, I see why this is an even line even if I don't agree with it. The Jaguars have been somewhat more impressive than an 0-2 record, despite being embarrassed across the coasts in San Diego last week. They almost beat the mighty Packers in Week 1. On the flip side, the Ravens have crawled to a 2-0 record, scoring just 13 points in Week 1 against Buffalo and falling behind 20-0 in the first quarter before achieving the second biggest comeback in franchise history last week against the Browns. The Ravens offense comes alive this week in what I think will be a 24-13 victory in Jacksonville.
Detroit Lions (1-1) @ Green Bay Packers (1-1)
Line: Green Bay -7.5 Dr. Glows Pick: Detroit +7.5
Give me the points in this divisional game between two teams that have yet to prove themselves in 2016. But without the spread, give me the Packers in a brilliantly entertaining 24-21 showdown in Green Bay. The Packers offense ran into a fantastic Vikings defense last week, though if they are the elite team they claim to be, that should have been no excuse. Aaron Rodgers breaks out here, Matthew Stafford bounces back to an extent here, but I think the ground game for Green Bay is what winds up as the difference maker in this one. I am also blindly claiming that because I picked Eddie Lacy in two of my fantasy leagues this season, and am patiently waiting for a return.
Denver Broncos (2-0) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-1)
Line: Cincinnati -3.5 Dr. Glows Pick: Denver +3.5
If this line was -2.5, I would be inclined to take the Bengals because if they do win, it won't be more than a field goal. But I could see Denver winning this one if the Bengals offense performs like they did last week against an even better defense coming out of Denver. That Broncos defense is vaunted. DeMarcus Ware will likely miss some extended amount of time, including this game, which will certainly hurt but Von Miller could run a one man show and still wind up with a sack. In a tough, brutal game that I would love to watch, I just feel like Cincy winds up up three when time runs out.
Minnesota Vikings (2-0) @ Carolina Panthers (1-1)
Line: Carolina -7 Dr. Glows Pick: Carolina -7
It isn't often that a 2-0 team is getting a touchdown against a 1-1 team, but this is a special case where said 1-1 team just happens to be the defending NFC champions at home. I love Carolina in this game and was tempted to make this my Crystal Ball GuranDAMNtee of the week (yes, that is going to be a thing). I don't like Sam Bradford, ever, in any situation especially against a top three defense on the road. I don't like this run game with Adrian Peterson healthy, I hate this run game with him not playing at all. And I love Cam Newton to keep the pace of his best statistical season yet even against a vaunted defense in Minnesota's. Bradford throws three picks, the Vikings rush for maybe 35 yards, the Panthers roll 42-13.
Washington Redskins (0-2) @ New York Giants (2-0)
Line: New York Giants -4.5 Dr. Glows Pick: Washington +4.5
I'm a sucker for taking the points in NFC East games. These games are unpredictable and tough. Look, Kirk Cousins has shown in the past that he can come up in big spots, though he hasn't even shown glimpses of that in his first two games this year. The Giants have, coming up big late in their first game on the road against Dallas and last week in a rematch with the Saints that was a game where we almost saw on hundred points scored last year. The defense is improved, but how improved is it? If the Redskins can keep it close with a better run game this week and if Cousins doesn't make terrible, Charles Barkley terrible decisions, this game will be at least close if the Redskins don't pull one out of thin NFC East air.
Los Angeles Rams (1-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)
Line: Tampa Bay -5.5 Dr. Glows Pick: Tampa Bay -5.5
The Rams looked good last week, I guess, so there is no way they put back to back wins together. The question is whether or not they lose by a touchdown, and I think they certainly do. In Tampa, I see no reason not to believe Winston and the Bucs bounce back from an ugly lopsided loss in Arizona last week. My favorite stat of the week? The Rams have not only not scored a touchdown yet since moving to LA, they haven't scored a touchdown since the second quarter of a Week 17 loss to San Francisco in January of last season. That is going on ten months since scoring a touchdown. Will this week be the Rams first? I think that is sadly the most interesting story in this game. Final score is Bucs 21, Rams 12.
San Francisco 49ers (1-1) @ Seattle Seahawks (1-1)
Line: Seattle -9.5 Dr. Glows Pick: Seattle -9.5
Sorry, dad, but Seattle is not looking like your Seahawks of year's past (my dad is a Seahawks fan, for those who didn't know, who should be all of you). Russell Wilson has a bad ankle, Thomas Rawls might be forcing Marshawn Lynch out of retirement, Jimmy Graham is a sleeping giant on my fantasy bench, they lost to the fucking Rams again. Seattle is struggling. But this is the week I think they show us what they are capable of, as they return home and face an overachieving 49ers team that has blowout win against the Rams and a sort of blowout loss against the Panthers under their belts. I see a lot of 49ers turnovers and a few short field Seattle touchdowns, maybe even a pick-six, and a Seattle 30-17 win.
New York Jets (1-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-1)
Line: Kansas City -3 Dr. Glows Pick: Kansas City -3
No one can figure out the Chiefs, who have been outscored 42-3 in the first half of their two games so far in 2016. The run game is certainly hurting with Jamaal Charles still injured and the offensive line struggling, which forces Alex Smith to throw more often, hence an ugly 1-1 record. As for the Jets, they are about to embark on a brutal stretch of the season that will tell us a lot about where they might be in January. Next week they host Seattle before traveling to Pittsburgh and Arizona before coming home for Baltimore and than ending October with a road trip to Cleveland. So this game is very important for both teams but I think the Chiefs are better coached and more talented and Chris Berman's AFC Super Bowl pick, for whatever that is worth. Chiefs win this one 20-14.
San Diego Chargers (1-1) @ Indianapolis Colts (0-2)
Line: Indianapolis -3 Dr. Glows Pick: Indianapolis -3
My oh my the LaDanian Tomlinson vs Peyton Manning days of a Chargers-Colts game have passed. I think this Colts team is not very good, beginning and ending with their inability to protect Andrew Luck, which forces Luck into making Sam Bradford-like decisions. And the defense sucks, basically there isn't a lot for me to like about the Colts. But I also don't peg them as an 0-3 team, which is why I think they might wind up with an ugly win. This plays out as some fluky 28-24 game with the Colts scoring last and Phillip Rivers looking like he is taking a dump on the sideline the entire length of the game.
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0) @ Philadelphia Eagles (2-0)
Line: Pittsburgh -3.5 Dr. Glows Pick: Pittsburgh -3.5
Through two games, Carson Wentz has been about as good as you could ask your rookie quarterback to be. Two wins, two impressive stat lines, confident. Wentz has been the real deal. But I think in Week 3, he gets his first real test against a respected Steelers organization that not only knows how to win, knows how to take advantage of weakness. They play confusing Cover 2 defenses, they blitz at the right time but not all the time, they are riddled with ball hawks. Pittsburgh's defense is a nightmare for rookie quarterbacks, even one as confident as Carson Wentz. But Wentz is smart and I don't expect him to have a bad game or to be the reason Philly loses this game. The Eagles don't have a defense that can cover the depth of the Steelers receivers corp, nor do they have the talent to back up the confidence of Wentz on the offensive side of the ball. Philly hangs in for three quarters before Pittsburgh pulls away and wins 27-20.
Chicago Bears (0-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-1)
Line: Dallas -7.5 Dr. Glows Pick: Chicago +7.5
Give me 7.5 points all day long in this game. I love the Bears to cover the spread against Dak Prescott and a Cowboys team that isn't blowing teams out of the water. Sure, we can probably expect Brian Hoyer to start for the Bears, an offense that already struggles to score points with Cutler in. But Hoyer isn't the worst backup option in the league and can certainly at least manage the game and not throw it away through turnovers. If the Bears can do just that and hold Elliot to the 3.3 yards per carry he has been averaging through his first two games, this game will at least be close. I like Dallas to win, I just don't like Dallas to win convincingly.
Monday Night Football
Atlanta Falcons (1-1) @ New Orleans Saints (0-2)
Line: New Orleans -3.5 Dr. Glows Pick: Atlanta +3.5
This game is generally close, despite the Saints taking four of their past five meetings with the Falcons at the Superdome. I'm banking on it coming down to a field goal, tie game all the way up until time expires. Again, I like New Orleans to win, just not convincingly. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see a Falcons win given how well Matt Ryan has played early in the season. This might be the game of the week when it is all said and done.
Again, 13-20. Trust me.
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